A new preprint paper has been released examining how global warming has accelerated significantly.
The paper statistically shows to high probability that the acceleration of global warming has essentially doubled over the last decade, from 0.2 C per decade to more than double 0.43 C per decade. The temperature versus year curve was cleaned up for statistical purposes by removing the three main effects to variability, namely: 1) The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles from El Nino to La Nina fluctuations 2) Volcanic activity, that puts ash into the upper atmosphere temporarily cooling the planet 3) The Solar cycle (22 year cycle people think of as an 11 year cycle, from a Sun with lots of sunspots to one with few sunspots After accounting for this triad of known variability, the global warming acceleration of the last decade simply pops off the page to your eyeballs. James Hansen has been saying this for well over a year, consistently, and frequently until his face turns blue. His work is spot on, as usual.
References: Thanks to Leon Simmen for his excellent table summarizing when UN IPCCC temperature thresholds are expected to be crossed assuming "linear extrapolation"; thus, the most conservative case: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1...
Preprint paper on Research Square: Title: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly Abstract Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945.
