Datum: 5-9-2023 Paul Beckwith
James Hansen is arguably the giant of all climate scientists. I was very fortunate to meet him a few years ago at a COP climate conference, and chat with him on a CEF (Climate Emergency Forum) video. He has just published a new paper on updates on the climate system: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailing...This paper is vitally important in giving us a clear picture of what we can expect in the next few years. A confluence of factors is driving up global average temperatures of the atmosphere and oceans and we can expect warming and climate extremes to notch up to much higher record setting levels. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
We are only getting a taste this summer of what is to come in the next year or two.
1) Average global temperatures trended upwards at 0.18 degrees C per decade before 2010. With less aerosol forcing, since 2010 to now it has risen between 0.27 and 0.36 degrees C (this was all in the previous paper “Global Warming in the Pipeline”)
2) We can expect an additional rise from El Niño; it is really just getting started. A super El Niño will easily drive global average temperatures well above 1.5 C perhaps later this year but highly probably for 2024. El Niño is much more powerfully warming the planet in the year after it starts, so in 2024 since it started this year.
3) Solar irradiation is peaking soon, and basically adds a forcing of +0.1 W per m**2 on top of everything else.
4) We are missing a vast area of sea ice around Antarctica, but Antarctica is still in its winter darkness. Come Fall and Winter for Northern Hemisphere dwellers, the sun rises in the Southern Hemisphere and the huge extra area of dark open ocean around Antarctica will absorb huge amounts of extra sunlight.
5) The Earth Energy Imbalance was 0.6 W or m**2 ten years ago (400,000 Hiroshima bombs a day) but is now 1.22 W per m**2 (more than double; namely 800,000 Hiroshima bombs per day).
It is already rapidly rising and the additional effects listed above will greatly accelerate the rise. As a result of this unfortunate confluence of events, we can expect the global climate turmoil in the last few months to substantially worsen. When it does, expect the media and mainstream scientists and politicians to espouse their excuses and concerns, but none of that matters if they do not slash fossil fuels. Last week Lahaina in Hawaii was incinerated and 1400 people are still missing (I think they have returned to ashes and dust), and just today 90-95% of the town of Enterprise in Canada’s Northwest Territories has incinerated.
Global floods are ongoing, heatwaves are killing countless people, and global governments just don’t give a damn, since they are subsidizing fossil fuels at record high levels. And the world goes on, at least for most people. Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I document and explain why our planet is dying.
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